SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 14 13:10:02 UTC 2025

No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 14 13:10:02 UTC 2025.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Nov 14 13:10:02 UTC 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 14 13:10:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Nov 14, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late
tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A positively tilted upper trough off the West Coast will evolve into
a closed low through the period as it moves slowly southward
along/near the coast of central/southern CA. An associated surface
low should develop towards the coastal southern CA late tonight into
early Saturday morning. Instability across this area is forecast to
remain very weak, with poor lapse rates aloft present. Even so,
low-topped convection may occasionally reach levels sufficient for
charge separation and lightning flashes as it moves onshore across
parts of southern CA late tonight. Low-level winds are expected to
remain modest, but south-southwesterly flow will strengthen with
height through mid/upper levels. While strong/gusty winds may occur
in the higher terrain, the overall severe threat should be hampered
by minimal instability and weak low-level shear.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/14/2025


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