Storm Prediction Center
SPC MD 1981
MD 1981 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1981
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Areas affected...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into much of southern
Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142035Z - 142300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may increase out of the Panhandles and into
southern Kansas through this evening. Areas of strong to damaging
wind gusts will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations show very hot conditions have
developed, with temperatures at or above 105 F from the TX Panhandle
into southern KS including the Wichita area. Notably, PWAT has been
measured at 1.50 to 1.60", suggesting a deep layer of boundary layer
moisture coincident with the steep low-level lapse rates.
Storms are already occurring over the northeast TX Panhandle and
into far northwest OK, producing strong gusts. Outflow from this
activity may push into KS, where a weak wind shift exists.
Therefore, scattered storms are expected to develop into these
areas, and locally severe gusts appear likely. Coverage of severe
may not warrant a watch, but trends will continued to be monitored.
..Jewell.. 08/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36700145 37160092 37810006 38369894 38409761 38289719
38119703 37979691 37659692 37299729 37139794 36869884
36549961 36140038 35780108 36060166 36700145
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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SPC MD 1980
MD 1980 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1980
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Areas affected...portions of the southern Great Basin into the lower
Colorado River Basin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142014Z - 142215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms will
bring an isolated risk for damaging/severe wind gusts through this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...In the wake of morning cloud cover, strong diurnal
heating and steepening low-level lapse rates amid low-to-mid 50s
dewpoints are supporting scattered thunderstorm development within a
corridor of greater buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) across portions
of the Great Basin and lower Colorado River Basin. Enhanced
southwesterly flow downstream of an upper low centered off of the
California coastline is contributing to modestly enhanced effective
shear of 25-35 kts, sufficient for modest updraft organization. In
conjunction with steep low-to-mid level lapse rates, high LCLs (2-3+
km), and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, an isolated risk for
damaging/severe wind gusts may accompany developing thunderstorms
through this evening. This risk is expected to remain relatively
isolated. Thus, watch issuance is not anticipated.
..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...
LAT...LON 38301327 37721304 37011287 36481286 35801298 35391314
34941342 34451386 34061425 33931463 33921497 34011517
34221541 34541562 35241593 36101614 36971610 37781603
38131585 38721542 38981491 39141448 38831367 38301327
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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SPC MD 1979
MD 1979 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1979
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Areas affected...the Front Range and western Nebraska Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142005Z - 142200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will increase across the area over the next several
hours, with some producing hail and strong wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows substantial moisture across
eastern CO and into southeast WY, with upper 50s to lower 60s F
dewpoints. Daytime heating continues, with weak easterly surface
winds maintaining the moist air mass.
Lapse rates are not particularly steep today, with warm temperatures
aloft, and lack of boundary layer mixing. However, MLCAPE is
increasing to around 2000 J/kg, and, 20 to 30 kt mid to high level
winds are resulting in effective deep layer shear of 30 kt. As such,
mixed storm modes are expected.
A strong cell has already developed over western Douglas County as
of 20Z, possibly producing hail. Additional activity will likely
fill in across the entire region through early evening, and some
cells may produce hail over 1.00" diameter. Some of the downdrafts
may produce strong to perhaps severe gusts, but an organized wind
threat is not anticipated.
..Jewell.. 08/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39040508 39570520 39910542 41030518 41400468 41570397
41340318 40790303 40060314 39190347 38940402 38810474
38840496 39040508
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC MD 1978
MD 1978 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1978
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern/eastern New York into southern
New England
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141935Z - 142130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Lop-topped thunderstorms may bring an isolated risk for
damaging wind gusts (and perhaps an instance of marginally severe
hail) to portions of New York and southern New England this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a cluster of ongoing
thunderstorms that have recently progressed from southern Ontario
into Upstate New York immediately ahead of a mid-level shortwave
trough evident in visible satellite imagery. Cold mid-level
temperatures associated with this shortwave and steep low-level
lapse rates have allowed for the development of weak buoyancy (on
the order of a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE), which is sufficient for a
few relatively low-topped thunderstorms. Strong northwesterly,
mid-to-upper level flow (sampled by the TYX VWP) is supporting
modest effective shear (25-35+ kts) and some updraft organization.
While it remains unclear how long ongoing convection will be
maintained owing to limited available buoyancy, forcing associated
with the mid-level shortwave may allow for the persistence of
ongoing convection southeastward toward southern New England and/or
additional downstream development through the afternoon. Should this
occur, isolated damaging wind gusts (and perhaps an instance of
marginally severe hail in the near-term) are possible. Watch
issuance is not anticipated as the limited thermodynamic environment
is expected to largely temper convective intensity.
..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43057577 43467624 44067628 44467592 44637542 44627490
44207409 43067253 42737209 42367162 42047161 41727173
41437216 41267276 41477382 42027461 43057577
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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