GSP Forecast Discussion
341
FXUS62 KGSP 251047
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
647 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion for 12z TAF set.
Temperatures trended a bit warmer for later this week, on the
overnight forecast.
We will closely evaluate whether a Frost Advisory might be needed
for some valley areas, tonight into Monday morning.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry high pressure will persist over the region thru the weekend
and most of the coming week. Temperatures will climb back above
normal over the next few days, with highs approaching 80 degrees
by the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Dry high pressure will persist over the region thru
the weekend and most of the coming week. Temperatures will climb
back above normal over the next few days, with highs approaching
80 degrees by the end of the week.
The dry weather is expected to continue for the next several days
across our area. A stout upper ridge remains centered and nearly
stationary over the Mississippi River Valley to our west. This has
created an upper-level blocking pattern across the eastern 2/3
of the CONUS. This blocking pattern will gradually dissipate by
the middle of the coming week, however the Southeast will remain
under broad upper ridging thru the end of the week.
At the sfc, broad high pressure over the New England coast will
permit a cold-air damming wedge to linger thru the remainder
of the weekend before the parent high breaks down tonight into
Monday. Radiational cooling conditions actually become a bit better
tonight as winds slacken more overnight, and some valley fog appears
possible in the mountains and river valleys of the NW NC Piedmont. A
few mountain valleys and more sheltered I-40 corridor locations also
may see temps dip into the 30s which could result in patchy frost;
day shift will evaluate whether this is likely enough to warrant
a Frost Advisory...but note, the frost-freeze program is shut off
for the season in a portion of the NC mountains from I-26 northeast.
On Tuesday, a secondary cP airmass will settle over the Northeast,
reinforcing the low-level dry air and bringing cooler temperatures
for the middle of the week. Nonetheless, temperatures are expected
to climb back above normal by the end of the week as the high
shifts eastward and off the Atlantic Coast.
At this time, it`s looking like there could be some fire weather
concerns during the middle of the coming week. Based on the current
fcst, the lower RH values don`t really overlap with the stronger
winds and/or wind gusts. Nonetheless, if this trend changes over
the next few days, we could have a day or two with elevated fire
danger over part(s) of our area. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry high pressure north of the terminal area
maintains an easterly low-level flow early this morning and has
resulted in some stratus at FL020-040 below the east-facing Blue
Ridge as of issuance time. Periodic cigs can`t be ruled out
though chance of restrictions at KAVL/KHKY/KGSP/KGMU appears
low. Diurnal cu development at MVFR to low VFR level also
warrants FEW-SCT mention lasting into afternoon at all sites.
Winds will be breezy and primarily NE, possibly going ESE or
even SE at times at KAVL in the early afternoon. SKC should
return late afternoon to evening; lighter winds are expected
tonight with less potential for stratus to advect in, though
better radiational cooling conditions suggest some fog will
develop in mountain and river valleys at the end of the period.
Dry soils lend low confidence to fog being more than
brief/patchy, so only included TEMPOs at KAVL and KHKY for Mon
AM.
Outlook: Dry and mainly VFR conditions through the week. Mtn valley
fog and low stratus will be possible each morning.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
JPT/JCW
NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion
